Too Late for Thailand?

People are camping in front of the government building, TV stations are stormed, airports are closed. What's happening in Thailand right now is pure chaos, and nobody knows what will happen next. But it reveals that Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej is anything but a strong leader, mainly because his hands are tied because of his very own past.

First of all, after the coup d'etat in September 2006 an election was held one year later. Samak won and became prime minister. This is called democracy, and nobody ever questioned the election. But Samak doesn't act as a strong leader or even as a prime minister who had been elected by the majority of Thais. If he would, he would have taken measures against the PAD (People's Allicance for Democracy) rally right from the start.

Since I'm a German citizen I always compare the situation in Thailand with Germany. If a group of people started a demonstration without permission by blocking roads in Berlin for several days the government would not think twice. The police would disperse the crowd (with water cannons, if necessary), and arrest the leaders of the group. After all, national security is at stake.

Now if Samak had done the same in Bangkok he would have prevented a lot of trouble. Of course, for a couple of days there would have been a clash between the protesters and the police, and maybe some people would have been injured. But Samak would have avoided the unpleasant situation the country is in now. The equation is as follows:

• A couple of protesters and policemen injured (if any)
  
• The PAD leaders and other hardcore protesters arrested
  
• Possibly unrest for some days
  

against

• Roads in downtown Bangkok blocked for months, thus causing unimaginable traffic jams
  
• Schools around the government district closed for several days
• The economy and stock market going down after foreign investors became too scared and sold their shares worth hundreds of millions of US dollars
• A TV station hijacked (NBT)
• Airports closed, thus pissing off thousands of tourists in Krabi and Phuket, causing massive damage to the country's tourism image, scaring potential tourists, which causes significant financial damage because tourism is one of Thailand's most important sources of income
  
• Train traffic stopped due to a strike of train workers, thus pissing off even more tourists and causing even more financial damage
• The government building made useless after it was taken over by the protesters
• A general unstable situation where nobody knows what's actually going on or what will happen next, with people fearing bloody violence and another coup d'etat
• A country basically split into half (government supporters and PAD supporters)
  

But why is Samak not doing anything against the PAD protests? The answer lies in his blood-dripping past. In 1976 he played a major role during the coup d'etat:

"Although in 2008 interviews with CNN and al-Jazeera Samak denied involvement in the 6 October 1976 massacre that left officially at least 46 dead, Samak insists only 1 person was left dead. Accounts from witnesses, documents and published reports clearly identify Samak as chief operator of the "Armoured Car" radio programme, an ultra-right wing broadcast that constantly expounded anti-communist and pro-right propaganda. Samak used this programme to stir up hatred against Thammasat University students, and intentionally disobeyed the Prime Minister's orders at the time to "stop creating divisiveness." In defending the return of 1973-ousted Field Marshal Praphat over the radio, Samak told listeners that students demonstrating against the dictator's return were committing suicide." (wikipedia.org)

If he sends the police and/or military in (after all, he's also defense minister) to fight the PAD, this would bring back the memories of 1976, escalate the situation and almost inevitably lead to a blood bath. So I think what he's doing now is trying to turn the public against the PAD by pointing the finger at the PAD and their actions, thus making them responsible for the country's downfall--at least that's what it looks like. He hopes that (given enough time) the problem will solve itself. And indeed, seeing how harmful its actions are to the country, it is no surprise that the PAD is losing support by the public. Indeed, it has shot itself in the foot. Maybe Samak thinks that the half that's not supporting the PAD will be able to convince the half that supports the PAD to stop their protest and go back to actual democratic measures. But that might not be so easy--after all, the PAD is not even a party; it's more like a lobby consisting mainly of members of the Thai elite who are fed up with Samak's politics and who think he's just a puppet of the old (and corrupt) PM Thaksin. Taking the issue in their own hands is therefore not democratic but anarchic.

Nevertheless, the government's passive stance is very dangerous because it divides the country into two parties. But as I said, this difficult situation could have been avoided by tackling the People Against Democracy a long time ago. Now it seems too late.